While there's some mystery as to the fate of Tank Man, I don't doubt that the CCP found Tank Commander and put a bullet in the back of his head at the first opportunity.
I think, however, that the center of gravity of the state remains with Tank Commander. To the extent that the United States, other Western regimes, non-governmental organizations, and pretty much anyone else want to affect the course of events in Iran, the key is to convince Tank Commander not to shoot.
And this from Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri
A government not respecting people's vote has no religious or political legitimacy," he declared in comments on his official Web site. "I ask the police and army personals (personnel) not to 'sell their religion,' and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before God."
Let us hope that this unrest will end with the minimum of bloodshed and horror.
The good news is that this could truly lead to a more open political space in Iran, for movement both domestically and internationally.
The bad news is that interventionist dumbasses could still scotch the deal. The US should express keen interest in, and appropriate support for, the free expression of political dissent. It must also leave the rest to Iranian actors.
note: I am specifically referencing Frank Gaffney with my interventionist dumbasses remark. There are many others. They get no link and neither does Dumbass.